Copper Prices Edge Down with Narrowing Futures Spreads, Shanghai Spot Copper Premiums Drop Back Slightly [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

Published: Oct 22, 2025 15:59

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[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper spot premiums are expected to continue weakening, but the discount will be limited. During the morning trading session, the price spread between futures contracts narrowed, with arbitrageurs slightly reducing premiums to secure profits. If copper prices stabilize tomorrow, premiums are not expected to fluctuate significantly.

SMM October 22:

Today, spot prices of SMM #1 copper cathode against the SHFE 2511 contract were at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 70 yuan/mt, with the average premium quoted at 30 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 84,840 to 85,070 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE copper fluctuated rangebound, briefly testing 84,780 yuan/mt before rebounding to around 85,000 yuan/mt. The price spread between futures contracts fluctuated between a contango of 40 yuan/mt and a backwardation of 10 yuan/mt. The import loss for the current-month SHFE copper contract narrowed to around 800 yuan/mt.

Intraday procurement and sales sentiment continued to decline, with procurement sentiment for copper cathode in the Shanghai region at 3.00 and sales sentiment at 3.12. Suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at a premium of 10 to 40 yuan/mt, with transactions later concluded at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 30 yuan/mt. A few brands traded in small volumes at around a discount of 20 yuan/mt. Prices for high-quality copper declined, with transactions concluded at around a premium of 60 yuan/mt. Intraday arrivals from Myanmar and BMOOK were traded at around a discount of 50 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead, spot premiums for Shanghai copper are expected to continue weakening tomorrow, but the discount is limited. During the morning trading session, the price spread between futures contracts narrowed, with arbitrageurs slightly reducing premiums to secure profits. If copper prices stabilize tomorrow, premiums are not expected to fluctuate significantly.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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